EXPLORING FUTURE TRANSITION PATHWAYS The Socio-Technical Scenario approach

Developing a sustainable energy system is an enormous challenge. Despite many reports that suggest otherwise the main challenge does not seem to be of a technical nature: with proven technologies it is possible to design an energy system that produces only a fraction of the emissions (CO2 as well as pollutants) of the current system (IPPC, 2001). Rather than a lack of good technical solutions the problem seems to be that there are too many potential (partial) solutions. Since each of these solutions has its own advocates it is very difficult for decisionmakers and others to make an assessment of their potential and to decide which of these options to support and/or implement. An additional problem is that a transition to a sustainable energy system will require a combination of a variety of alternatives and it is very difficult if not impossible to oversee where such new combinations could lead to.